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Close-Call Asteroid Coming

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             SKY & TELESCOPE'S NEWS BULLETIN - MAY 28, 1999
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[snip]

CLOSE-CALL ASTEROID COMING

Astronomers admitted this week that there is a small but real possibility
that an asteroid could hit the Earth in less than 50 years. The asteroid of
the hour -- designated 1999 AN10 -- had been put on the list of
"potentially hazardous objects" soon after its discovery earlier this year.
A team of Italian astronomers determined that there was a one-in-a-billion
chance of impact in 2039 and their results were prematurely announced by
outside individuals. While the object became a topic of discussion in
astronomical circles, it didn't cause a widespread media frenzy as with
minor planet 1997 XF11 a year ago. Once the object cleared the Sun and
could be observed again, additional positions and analysis eliminated the
2039 threat, but revealed that 1999 AN10 would skirt the Earth on August 7,
2027, perhaps as close as 30,000 kilometers above Earth's surface. The
situation changed with yet more positions of the object, and on May 26th,
Paul W. Chodas (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) announced that analysis by
several dynamicists revealed that while the asteroid could not hit us on
2027, the uncertainty of where the object would be when it came by the
planet allowed "keyholes" that could send it on a collision course in 2044
or 2046. The odds of a collision are now roughly one in 500,000 -- slightly
more likely than a chance hit from an undiscovered asteroid over the next
40 years. Further observations of 1999 AN10 will help refine its orbit and
shrink the error ellipse. Thus even this danger could evaporate.

[snip]
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Copyright 1999 Sky Publishing Corporation. S&T's Weekly News Bulletin and
Sky at a Glance stargazing calendar are provided as a service to the
astronomical community by the editors of SKY & TELESCOPE magazine.
Widespread electronic distribution is encouraged as long as these
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be published in any other form without permission from Sky Publishing
(contact permissions@skypub.com or phone 617-864-7360). Updates of
astronomical news, including active links to related Internet resources,
are available via SKY & TELESCOPE's site on the World Wide Web at
http://www.skypub.com/.

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