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Re: Close-Call Asteroid Coming


-----Original Message-----
From: E. L. Jones <jonee@epix.net>
To: meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com
<meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Monday, May 31, 1999 8:11 AM
Subject: Re: Close-Call Asteroid Coming


Hello all,
    I would disagree about the casualty level.
Two factors would be what the 1 km diam asteroid was made of, and if it
impacted ocean or land.  If it impacted land, at worst, I bet it would only
kill people within 100 or 200 km or so.  Millions only if in a populated
area.           D Futrell>



>Hello Michael, Ron, and List,
>
>Here are a few "facts" about the subject I gleaned from my readings.
>
>Tunguska knocked down trees in a 1000-1300 square kilometer area but did
not disrupt any ecosystems.  In comparison ,I recall  that Mount St. Helens
took out 20-30 square miles.
>
>A 1 km diameter asteroid would release 7,500 Megatons of equivalent TNT  in
other terms 15 BILLION Hiroshima type bombs and a casualty level of 1-1.2
Billion Humans.  Close but not a Extinction Level Event (ELE) for humans.  A
serious reduction in demand for computers, however, a boon in demand for
hammer and chisel and cave art in some cultures.....
>
>Just  wanted to pass those figures along.  Have a good Memorial Day.
>Regards,
>Elton
>
>
>Michael Blood wrote:
>>
>> >This would be like another Tunguska, wouldn't it?
>> ---
>> No, 1999 AN10 is in the PHA category and about 1 km in diameter.  It
>> would do major damage if it hit the Earth.
>> Ron Baalke
>> ---
>> Ron,
>>         I am confused. You do NOT consider Tunguska "major damage?"
>>         The 65 MYA dynosaur exterminator (as well as about 65 to 75% of
all
>> life on earth) was extimated to be 6 km in diameter.
>> However, 1 km has "only" a very small fraction of the mass of a 6 km
>> body.
>>         Personally, I consider Tunguska to have caused ultra major damage
(what
>> was it? Flattened 10,000 square miles?) - however, it was in a nearly
>> unpopulated area - it certainly would have entirely obliterated any
>> major city on earth. However, relative to a 6 km diameter body, 1 km is
>> "relatively" "small." "Major," yes, but still significantly less so than
>> the impact of the 65myo Yucatan impact.  So, what IS the estimated
>> impact ?
>>         Best wishes, Michael
>
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